NBL27: Preseason Wrap

There is a special kind of madness that arrives with the return of SuperCoach NBL Classic.

After a year in SuperCoach purgatory at the hands of Damon Lowery and the train wreck known as "Beat the Coach" we are back. We've spent months analysing imports, projecting rotations, comparing historical numbers and convincing ourselves that this is finally the year we understand the game.

Then preseason arrives.

A new import arrives dropping back to back 50's, A sea change brings renewed optimism for a bounce back season for another player and a sneaky offseason signing has us salivating over a $69k rookie. Elsewhere a player is now named in 45% of teams making us think what have we missed and during a late night scroll you see someone tweet “LOCK” and suddenly you're rebuilding our entire squad at 1am.

Ah, Yes. Classic is back, and I couldn't be more here for it. With 6 sleeps to go until opening nights and the preseason and Blitz now in the rearview mirror we finally have something more useful than speculation: a game plan. Here's our final thoughts, feelings and concerns to help you make those last minute adjustments to your opening squad. LETS GO!

Lesson 1: All that Glitters is not (Ben) Gold

This is the most important thing I’m taking from the preseason. Somewhat of a reminder to take off the rose coloured glasses and to stop ignoring the asterisks next to some performances.

A big score is great. But a big score with a repeatable role is what we want. Prime example is Shaun Bruce. Priced at $76k the Cairns guard was on a lot of early radars after his performance in Game 1 of the Blitz. 36SC in 31 minutes. Impressive, sure but it needs some context. This was in a game that featured Jaylon Brown, No Luke Paul and No Sunday Dech. With those 3 included he slides a long way down the depth chart. It was also against a Perth Wildcats team that featured no point guard. Context matters.

So what is it we are trying to find? We’re looking for:

• Minutes that are likely to hold.

• Touches that aren’t dependent on one player being absent.

• Rebounds, assists and defensive stats that create a floor on a bad shooting night.

• A price that allows the player to make money.

• A schedule that gives us a reason to own them now.

How many of these criteria can we satisfy? Let's take a look at ben Gold of the Tasmania Jackjumpers. He certainly has a price that allows him to make money and at 6'11 with a smooth stroke from down town, Gold offers a look the JJ's haven't had before. Averaging over 25minutes a game during preseason and at only $69k he’s a feature across many starting SuperCoach teams (25%). Fair.

The problem with preseason though is that it can be misleading. Just like Shaun Bruce, The JJ's haven't played their full squad making it more difficulty to evaluate Gold's role when they do. With Magnay, Bannan and Deng all having had varying levels of availability throughout preseason and playing obscure minutes, Gold has been the only constant.

It’s hard to know exactly what Gold’s role or minutes will look like in Round 1, though I'm going to go out on a limb here and throw out a prediction. His Dual Position eligibility and the fact he has the frame to play minutes at centre give me the confidence he will play 10-13 minutes a game. He's been going for around 0.83sc/m across the JJ's 3 preseason games translating to around 8-11 SC / Game. With a Break Even on just 7 he will make cash, probably not as much as most expect, however the value will come when (not if) Magnay gets injured. For a guy at $69k this isn't bad production given a lot won't consistently see the court.

Preseason is not about finding the highest scorer.It’s about finding the highest scorer who has a job. You can't score from the bench.

Lesson 2: United on United

One thing that we all seem to agree on is that Mebourne United have done a stellar job of recruiting during the offseason. It has never been a case of do I want these guys, but instead when can I bring them in? Oduro, Travers and Anthony are all discounted Premos who I fully intend to own for round 3 if not before. To do this though won't be straight forward without a plan. Check out our "Reverse Engineering" article to see how we plan to get here. The one concern is the depth especially in the front court. If anyone sacrafices it will, in my opinion, be Sam Waardenburg and Joe Ingles.

We only saw Cole Anthony in one preseason game but it was enough for me to be all in. More telling than the 46 SuperCoach points in only 24 minutes, was the fact that he seemed to do this with out getting out of first gear and notably made those around him better with the attention he demanded from the defence. Find a way because he is a bargain even at 300k. Likewise Oduro will Challenge Tyrell Harrison for the best SuperCoach Big in the competition this year, and at 60k cheaper and with a better early schedule he gets the nod.

Lesson 3: Good players aren't always good SuperCoach players

For those new to this game, it's an important lesson. The one to highlight out of pre-season is Hunter Goodrick. The rookie comes in at the bargain basement price of $69k. The commentary on this guy has been more than favourable yet, it does not translate. Take olympian Chris Goulding for example. He is without doubt a great NBL player, yet I would argue he wouldn't be a top 50 SuperCoach Option. He is too points dependent with over 80% of his SC score coming from buckets. Likewise there are those players that every team needs. The ones that do the dirty work, the one percenters, the stuff that helps teams win but doesn't necessarily show up on the stats sheet. Hunter Goodrich fits in to that second category. He sets great screens that open up his hooters and he plays solid D, boxes out and seems all kinds of dependable but dependable doesn't generate SuperCoach points, which is why I can't fathom why he is currently 45% owned by the competition.

Across his preseason he has average around 12 minutes and almost 6SC at a rate f 0.58SC/Minute. Not world-beating production. I would go on to say that both minutes and production are inflated and will contract come round 1.

Remember, if you're buying a $69k guy who produces he's a cash cow. If you buy one that doesn't play you're buying a bench ornament.

Approach with caution. Instead of Goodrick I would look at a guy who can put points up in a hurry like Akech Alliir who dropped 36SC in 19 minutes off the bench in one preseason game. His activity translates.

Lesson 4: Maybe there is such a thing as a Silver Bullet?

Finally something to get excited about in BrisVegas! Will Weaver returns to the NBL and has assembled a more than solid squad. The team, surprisingly, doesn't have the feeling of dysfunction that has hung over it across the James Duncan, Justin Schueller, D-Mac, Sam Mackinnon, Greg Vanderjagt, Stu Lash, era. Wow, just typing that makes me wonder how this team survived such instability. Anyway, Weaver is here now and it's all looking up. A lot to do with that is a really nice starting 5 with clearly defined roles and a chemistry that looks to boost everyones SuperCoach production. How's the old saying go? A rising tide lifts all ships? Something like that is going on here.....and a lot of that can be attributed to arguably the most important offseason signing in the competition: Lithuanian White Chocolate Arnas Velicka at the new import price of $277k is the real deal. You don't just fumble your way to a Euro League MVP without knowing ball and on the back of this impressive resume he's now put it together in a preseason campaign which included multiple 50SC outings.

I'm calling it now, he's a Supercoach stud. 6'6' point guards don't grow on trees and his combination of size and skill helps him get those extra rebounds and blocks that other guards outside of Taran Armstrong just cant get. He's a triple double threat every night and what's more he makes everyone else look better. More on this later but Tyrell Harrison is ready for a career year. The only downside for the Bullets is the weak early schedule but the Henshall Rule is your friend allowing you to use your boosts and capture some much needed cash in round 3 before the Bullets become your ride up the leaderboard from round 6.

Tyrell Harrison. He's been solid when we've needed him to be spectacular over the past seasons. Shows us glimpses and teases us with potential to take that next step but doesn't quite do it. I think this is the year and much of this is going to be at the hand of Velicka. Tyrell, i guarantee will not work anywhere near as hard for his buckets as he has had to in the past. Velicka has already shown the ability to serve it to him on a platter. This connection will only grow and with capable bodies around him I feel there's just enough to avoid any serious double teams. He's a top 3 super coach centre easily and the argument can be made he's the best. Price is reasonable. Would look to bring in round 3 onwards and try for a perfect pairing with another Centre.

Aside from the big 2 there are a few other notables; starting with Max Mackinnon - There was so much hope here until he came in at 200k. He was everyone's golden cash cow prior to the game opening and then....well... the price is awkward. He's priced the same or higher than more established players like Reyne Smith, Elijah Pepper, Malique Lewis and even Chris Goulding. Yet....the door isn't completely shut. After the first game of the Blitz, little Maxi Pad game out of the gates hot and dropped a game high 26 points on his way to 32 SuperCoach points and hasn't looked back since. Weaver treated preseason as I would imagine he would a regular season fixture and the role and minutes should be reflective of whats to come. So the question is....Is he still going to generate cash and is he playable? The answer to both is yes. What I would say now is that you need to look at him through the lens of not being an overpriced rookie, but instead as an underpriced import. Ask yourself, will Max outproduce the likes of JJJ, Bediako, Kelan Martin, Malique Lewis, John Jenkins, DeShawn Schwartz, Yannis Morrin or Dakota Mathias? If the answer is yes, then perhaps he's that look that gives you some pocket change to deploy elsewhere.

Lastly on the bullets, and excuse the length of this post but it's the first time ina. decade there's been anything positive to write about these guys, is new imports Nate Hinton and Jaylin Wiliams:

Hinton seems the better prospect of the two, yet I don't see enough yet to get excited SuperCoach wise. We saw him early preseason playing against an NBL1 select team in a blow out win where he produced 22pts 8rbds 6assists 3steals 1 block 48SC (23mins). Good but with a giant asterisk given the competition. In the first Blitz outing he came back down to earth with 20SC. He then seemed borderline dominant agianst the JJ's in Tassie for the last preseason game. I'll watch more and keep tabs on him but I'm not seeing anything that makes me want to trade at this price.

Similarly Wiliams was an underwhelming signing and has done nothing to sway my opinion since hitting the shores of Australia outside of again, the last preseason game vs Tasmania where he popped off for a very understated 41SC. A 6’8 stretch forward, brought in to essentially replace an MVP candidate in Casey Prather, Jaylin Williams (no not that one) comes from the G League's Stockton Kings where he averaged 13.7ppg and 6.9rpg in 30 minutes a night. This follows the previous season where he had 8.6ppg and 3rpg in 19 minutes for Grand Rapids Gold. The upside is his 3pt% is in the high 30s although I have concerns about his slow release. At $277k and a poor early schedule the hope is that he loses cash while finding his feet prior to round 6 and we can look to pick him up as a cheap bench option.

Long story short, Brisbane are a legitimate SuperCoach team. The lack of depth and reliance on starters gives us clear roles and much needed predictability. The schedule is sparse early until round 6 where they enter a run of 4 consecutive doubles and Velicka and Harrison at least become must own. They start off with back to back singles allowing 2 weeks to wait and see before any price rises take effect also. The one I want to flag as a watch for some upside is Lat Mayen. At 69K he could be a play....maybe.

Lesson 5: Know a bargain when you see one. Cheap is not necessarily value, value is not necessarily cheap.

You need cheapies. That's a cold hard fact. Your $2,000,000 starting budget will not stretch far without a few bargains in the mix. Yet sorting the shit from the clay is easier said than done sometimes. That's where we come in. Here's the cheap(er) guys (sub 115k) who we think will both play and generate significant upside in both cash generation and SC production. Keep an eye out for our upcoming Fools Gold Lists.

Dash Daniels

Akech Aliir

Preston LeGassick

Ben Gold

Anthony Dell'Orso

Lesson 6: To C or not to C?

It's a double points choice so choose wisely. It can make or break your round. Round 1 has a narrow captains field. Right now, even with a slight injury concern, PJC is the unanimous choice for us. At only 34% total ownership he is a 30.6% captains choice. Surprisingly the second most popular captain, on a single, is Bryce Cotton followed by Mennenga (10.4%). For me its a choice of 3. PJC, Skylar Mays (POD play at 2.4% ownership) and then Mennenga. Round 1 probably isn't the time to POD for me and if I'm paying up over 400k for PJC then im slapping him with the C.

Lesson 7: Who said the mid range game is dead?

In a world where analytics has taken over sport and declared the midrange game dead - I'm going against the grain and proclaiming that the midrange might just be where SuperCoach is won this year. The value picks in the 115k to 276k realm are very playable, have plenty of upside and could very much be startable options. The guys we are looking at in this range are:

Nick Rakocevic ($188.4K) was left to enjoy the spoils of a preseason where Isaac Humphries didnt suit up with the import producing a solid line of 10pts, 13 rebounds and 3 assists in thge final Blitz game. At this bargain price and a proven ability to be a double double threat on any night, I’m keeping tabs on this situation. Historically Humphries has missed plenty of games through injury so there may be points in the season to look here for some easy points and easy cash. Gleeson may even prefer the chemistry this way.

Elijah Pepper: Pepper has been getting it done since the end of NBL26 including taking out the NZBL MVP, Setting a Boomers scoring record and now dropping 40SC games across the pre-season. The one thing that is undeniable is that his game has evolved. There’s more to it than previous years. Just hope any import PG doesn’t take away too much of this.

DJ3J: Vasiljevic has frustrated and tormented us all preseason. After a year in adleiade where he fell out of the rotation his SC price tanked making us all froth at the idea of a fresh start across the ditch. $144k price tag with a Break Even of 14 should be childs play for a man that has topped 300k in previous seasons, yet he's flopped. Goulding level flop too. He has not beaten his breakeven across 4 of the 5 preseason games despite playing circa 27 minutes a night. The exception being the game against SEM when PJC went down hurt and he did what we wanted to see from Hhm at the blitz. 27pts for 36SC. Big cash generation at 144k if he can reproduce 70% of this nightly. What are the chances though? I think I've lost confidence.

Malique Lewis $207k: Really Really interesting prospect. After 2 years as a Next Star he was taken with the 60th pick in the NBA draft and now appears to be a draft and stash in the Far North. I don't love it as he now counts as an import yet the price is intriguing. $207k puts him in the realm of Maxi Pad Mackinnon, Elijah Pepper and co. In that context and given 3 straight doubles between rounds 2 and 4 coupled with a sidelined Jaylin Galloway, well it may be worthy of a sniff. Hardly featured in the preseason but did play 34 minutes in the last fixture against the Bullets ina. high scoring blow out. The 27SC (17,6 &4) did seem to come late as he padded the stats once the game was over.

Lesson 8: Addition By Subtraction

Can Skylar Mays and Nathan Sobey coexist? Is there enough ball to go around for both to be SuperCoach relevant? I’ve seen all SEM pre-season games and feel like they consistently steal stats off each other. Both have windows where they show the ability to pile the points on in quick succession only for the other to feel left out and dominate the ball for their 5 minutes. It took until the last preseason game for SEM against the Breakers for it to shine through clear as day. In a cracker of a game, almost going in to OT, Sobey and PJC both pulling up lame, clearing the runway for Skylar proving Mays is good. Very good.

It was clear when Sobey went to the bench that Mays reached that next level, playing freer and with more authority on his ways to a very dominant and impressive 42SC. He is clearly one of the most talented guards in the competition yet as we have said all year the dynamic in the SEM backcourt lowers his ceiling. I will less the farm to bring him in should Sobey get sidelined.

The final word

The preseason has done exactly what we needed it to do.

It’s taken a huge list of names and started creating tiers.

Tune in to our final Pre-Season Podcasts and Patreon Exclusive team reveals for more.