BIG NICK ENERGY

ROUND 3: THE PLAN IS WORKING… MOSTLY 👀

I said from the get-go that Round 3 was the target.

The plan was always to build towards this point, cash in on the right matchups and then reassess once we had three rounds of data to work with. Hopefully generate some cash alomng the way. I missed Dell'orso but jagged Dash and a few others so sitting nicely right now.

Did I end up with as many Melbourne United players as originally planned?

No.

Did it matter?

Not really.

A Round 3 score of 584 has me pretty bloody happy with where the team sits aside from the nosebleeds from being so high up the overall rankings currently at 26th overall - but more importantly, Round 3 has given us a hell of a lot of information to shape the next phase.

And that’s where things get interesting.

🚨 THE SCHEDULE IS ABOUT TO MATTER

We are approaching the end of the Cairns and Adelaide hold period, which means the clock is ticking on some of the players we've happily been riding.

But that doesn't mean we dump every Cairns and Adelaide player immediately.

Far from it.

In fact, there is this mythical creature called Nick Rakocevic.

Picked up for $188K, Rakocevic just went absolutely cataclysmic — 29 points, 16 rebounds and a ridiculous 65 SuperCoach points.

At this point, picking him up for $188K is basically turning water into wine.

You're not a SuperCoach manager.

You're pretty much Jesus.

With the price rises coming, there's absolutely no need to rush him out the door. He can make a stack of cash before we even start thinking about an exit. Right now as it stands he is at $301k on the back of a 72k rise this far with him nearing premo territory.

But we do need an exit strategy for the likes of Cheatham, Kenyon, Rigoni and Rasmussen. Flynn Cameron is still a few weeks away and the word on the street is that Corey Webster is likely to sign this week.

And then there's Cotton…ugghhh what a dilemma.

💀 COTTONAGEDDON

Oh, Bryce.

Cotton owners? You good? Reaching for your bath toaster yet?

Around 71% of the top 10% captained him and he proceeded to deliver his worst three-game SuperCoach average/stand of his career. Cotton is about to haemorrhage cash with the implosion ushering in a 40k drop which actually seems low in my eyes but will likely continue heading south. The old adage "you can't catch a falling knife" is clearly at the forefront of my mind.

Absolutely brutal.

The funny thing is that this is exactly why captaincy variance matters. PJC was the POD and delivered in spades for owners.

Bryce has delivered us a timely lesson. You can make the correct decision, put the armband on the best player in the competition… and still get absolutely pantsed.

The good news?

Cotton isn't suddenly bad at basketball.

Don't overreact.

👀 ROUND 3 TAUGHT US A FEW THINGS

MAKUR MAKER HAS ENTERED THE CHAT

Maker looked seriously good on debut.

The athleticism, the activity and the fantasy potential were immediately obvious.

Now we wait.

What price does SuperCoach give him?

Because if that number lands in the right place, he could become one of the most interesting trade targets of the next few rounds.

THE HAWKS ROTATION NIGHTMARE CONTINUES

Johnny Narkle is a fascinating one.

The talent is there. The price is tidy.

The opportunity can be there.

But trying to work out exactly what the Hawks are going to do with their rotation each game is proving to be a SuperCoach headache.

Right now, Narkle is sitting firmly in the:

“I want to believe… but I need to see it consistently”

category. He's not alone though, Frolling, Doyle, Martin, Hickey, Harvey all are rocks and diamonds so far and a looming new import further complicates things.

MAGNAY WAS A BEHEMOTH

That's about as simple as we can make it.

Magnay went nuclear.

The question now isn't whether he can produce — we've seen that.

It's whether his health permits. Go check out the Magnay article from yesterday for the fuull analysis but he's firmly in my thesis for the next stage of the schedule.

DAKOTA MATHIAS 👀

Mathias is proving to be better than expected.

And that's exactly the type of development we need to pay attention to.

Pre-season expectations are irrelevant once the actual season starts.

If a player is getting better opportunity, producing fantasy numbers and maintaining a role we didn't expect, we adjust. Every man's gain though is another man's loss and in this case it seems like David Johns is the one losing out.

That's SuperCoach.

🔄 SO… WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR ROUND 4?

This is where we're starting to get more selective.

We don't need to blow the team up.

We need to transition it.

Some Cairns and Adelaide players need an exit route.

Some players who looked attractive two weeks ago have become less appealing. And some new names are beginning to emerge.

The biggest mistake from here would be chasing Round 3 scores without considering Round 4, Round 5 and the schedule beyond it.

We're trying to build the team that scores well over the next phase, not the team that wins the screenshot competition on Monday morning.

Adelaide still have one remaining double in this block.

And with captaincy options looking pretty thin this round, there's a legitimate question to answer:

Do we take the pain, bank on the bounce-back and hold Cotton for one more round?

That's the kind of decision that can make or break the round.

Trade him now and you're getting off a rapidly depreciating asset.

Hold him and he could absolutely smash out a monster score, remind everyone why he's Bryce Cotton, and make us look like absolute geniuses for sticking with him.

Or, knowing SuperCoach, he'll score 17 and lose another $40K.

This is why we play the game.

The goal isn't simply to survive Round 4. It's to bridge Round 4 into the next phase of the schedule, where the landscape starts to open up:

🔥 Brisbane starts becoming relevant and become the hottest team from round 6 with 4 consecutive doubles. 🔥 Hawks + Tasmania line up beautifully allowing coaches to play perfect pairs. Magnay and Maker/Frolling combo anyone? 🔥 Melbourne United get a strong run but are one of the only relevant round 4 teams. 🔥 Sydney start coming back into the conversation after the worst oipening schedule making KD an obvious target.

And that's the key.

The best teams aren't necessarily winning round 4.

They're going to be the teams positioning themselves for what's coming next.

So before you smash that trade button, ask yourself one question:

Am I trading this guy because he's actually a bad SuperCoach option… or because I'm scared of missing the next shiny toy?

Because the next phase is coming.

And we're trying to be ready for it.